Biometrical Letters vol. 43(1), 2006, pp. 1-8
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PERMANENT DISABILITY AND SOCIAL SECURITY
I.J. Sequeira, J.T. Mexia Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, New University of Lisbon, Quinta da Torre 2829-516 Caparica, Portugal Tel.: +351 21 294 83 88, Fax: +351 21 294 83 91 e-mail: ijs@fct.unl.pt |
A Markov chain approach is used to estimate the probability of a man covered by Portuguese Social Security becoming permanently disabled. This estimator is used to assess the contribution of each active man covered by the Portuguese Social Security to insure against that possibility. This prediction is necessary due to the pay-as-you-go system used.
Pay-as-you-go, permanently disabled, prediction of yearly contributions
