Biometrical Letters Vol. 51(1), 2014, pp. 37-44
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GLOBAL ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE - A PRECISE MODELLING
Satyabrata Pal1, Arunava Ghosh2 1Former Dean, Post Graduate Studies and Professor of Agricultural Statistics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Faculty of Agriculture, Mohanpur, Nadia, West Bengal, 741252, India, e-mail: satyabrata.pal@hotmail.com 2Uttar Banga Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Department of Agricultural Statistics, Pundibari, Coochbehar, West Bengal, 736165, India, e-mail: arunava_ubkv@yahoo.co.in |
Global annual average temperature (GAAT) is regarded as a precise indicator of the warming of the globe over the centuries, and its spectre is looming large with the passage of time and with the advancement of civilization. Global warming, caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, has become the worst environmental threat to mankind. The phase 1981 to 2012 was the most crucial phase, and the impact of global warming in that phase indeed points to a disaster if not controlled now. Work on the building of appropriate models to represent the GAAT data can be found in the literature, although the precision levels (in terms of R2 values) of such models do not exceed 0.86. In this paper, six models are developed by using different combinations of mathematical functions. The developed models are superior to existing models in terms of their precision. In fact, to generate such models, extensive simulation work has been carried out not only with respect to the types of mathematical functions, but also with respect to the choices of initial values of the coefficients involved in each model. The models developed here have attained R2 values as high as 0.896.
Global warming, Greenhouse gases, Parametric modelling
